Trend of measles outbreak in Galmudug, Somalia: a retrospective study from 2023 to 2024

Abstract

Measles remains a significant public health concern in Somalia, with recurrent outbreaks despite the availability of vaccines. This retrospective study aimed to examine the trends of measles outbreaks in Galmudug State, Somalia, between April 2023 and December 2024. A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted using surveillance data from the Galmudug State Public Health Laboratory. All suspected and laboratory-confirmed measles cases reported between April 2023, and December 2024 were included. Data was analyzed using Microsoft Excel and SPSS version 26, focusing on demographic characteristics, temporal distribution, and IgM confirmation rates. Descriptive statistics, the chi-square (χ 2 ) test and logistic regression analyses were performed, with statistical significance set at p < 0.05. A total of 1,705 suspected measles cases were reported during the study period, of which 104 (6.0%) were laboratory confirmed. The incidence rate increased from 4.9 per 10,000 population in 2023 to 8.1 per 10,000 in 2024. The highest burden occurred among children aged 5–9 years (30%), followed by those aged 0–4 years (25.9%). Dusamareb District accounted for 95.8% of reported cases. No significant gender difference was observed ( p = 0.639).Logistic regression analysis also revealed that the rate of IgM-positive test in children aged 10–14 years and 0–4 years was significantly higher ( p < 0.05) by 11.3 and 7.7%, respectively, compared to other age groups. The resurgence of measles in Galmudug indicates persistent immunity gaps and inadequate vaccination coverage, particularly among young children. Strengthening routine immunization, ensuring equitable access to vaccines, and enhancing surveillance and outbreak response mechanisms are critical to achieving measles elimination targets in the region.