Pastoral vulnerability to drought: geographic and sociodemographic drivers of drought-related camel mortality in Somalia

Abstract

Pastoralism supports over 60% of Somalia’s population, with camels being vital for economic resilience. However, intensifying droughts pose severe threats. This study addresses the gap in species-specific data by identifying geographic and socio-demographic drivers of household-level camel mortality in Somalia. Using the 2020 Somalia Demographic and Health Survey, we analyzed 5,925 camel-owning households. The outcome was self-reported camel death due to drought within the preceding 12 months. Multivariable logistic regression identified independent predictors, controlling for socio-demographic, economic, and environmental confounders. Overall drought-related camel mortality was 45.91%. Geographic location was the dominant predictor; compared to Awdal, risk was highest in Sool (AOR = 7.74; 95% CI 5.76–10.41, p < 0.001), Nugaal (AOR = 4.12; 95% CI 2.93–5.80, p < 0.001), and Sanaag (AOR = 4.07; 95% CI 3.02–5.49, p < 0.001). Nomadic households faced significantly higher odds of loss than urban households (AOR = 2.87; 95% CI 2.29–3.60, p < 0.001). Additionally, susceptibility increased with the age of the household head, particularly for those over 54 years (AOR = 1.59; 95% CI 1.31–1.92, p < 0.001). Wealth index and household head sex were not statistically significant in the adjusted model. Camel mortality is driven by systemic and geographic vulnerabilities rather than individual economic status, highlighting the failure of traditional coping mechanisms against community-wide shocks. Resilience strategies must shift from reactive aid to proactive measures, including culturally adapted Index-Based Livestock Insurance (IBLI), community-based recovery systems like camel leasing, and strengthened market infrastructure.