A data-driven approach to hepatitis C forecasting using machine learning and epidemiological models

Abstract

The hepatitis C virus is a significant global health concern and a major cause of chronic liver disease. Therefore, developing a mathematical model is essential for understanding, controlling and managing its transmission dynamics. In this paper, we developed a mathematical model and simulated the dynamics of transmission of the hepatitis C virus, considering alcohol use, a key factor contributing to increased damage to the liver of infected individuals. Computational investigation of nonlinear biological models by traditional numerical solvers is challenging due to their nonlinearity and inherent complexity. Furthermore, we proposed a deep learning-based technique to solve the nonlinear differential equations governing the model for transmission of the hepatitis C virus in six compartments. The proposed deep learning-based model is compared with other established methods like the Runge-Kutta method and Livermore solver for ordinary differential equations algorithm to validate its efficacy and accuracy in predicting hepatitis C dynamics. The basic reproduction number, R 0 , is calculated and stability is analyzed at both the disease-free and endemic equilibrium points. Sensitivity analysis is performed to determine key parameters that contribute to hepatitis C transmission. The results indicate that the proposed approach is an efficient and robust solution with better convergence and stability than existing methods. This study highlights the potential of deep learning methods in epidemiology as a promising tool for predicting and controlling infectious diseases such as hepatitis C, particularly in the presence of behavioral risk factors such as alcohol consumption.